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Sustainable Aviation Fuels for Iceland

LucidCatalyst Insights Report

July 2021

LucidCatalyst wrote this Insights Report about high-temperature geothermal, which we believe is an untapped resource that can be configured and delivered to cost-competitively decarbonize global fuels markets. This approach would use proven chemical production processes. Furthermore, the commodities being produced are ‘drop-in’ substitutes such that they do not require changes (or require relatively minor changes) to existing supply chain infrastructure or consumer behavior. Consequently, developers do not need to wait for technological, supply chain, or regulatory changes to take advantage of these opportunities.


  • Techno-economics analysis suggests that these production facilities can produce zero-carbon hydrogen and value-added, hydrogen-based commodities (ammonia, CO2-neutral synthetic fuels, etc.) cost-competitively and at a scale relevant to target markets.

  • In the scenarios analysed, these strategies enabled the production of commodities for global markets at the following costs: Jet A: $82/bbl (compared to $90/bbl average for past 10 yrs)

    • Ammonia: $230/tonne (compared to $300/t long-term average for ammonia) Equivalent to approximately $420 per metric tonne of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), which is within its typical trading range

    • Hydrogen: less than $1/kg

    • Electricity: $24/MWh for baseload and $39/MWh, for 12 hours a day, 7 days a week dispatch, with NH3 and water production

    • Desalinated water: $1.23/m3, comparable to the cost of leading desal projects

  • Few, if any, behavior changes will be required of consumers. In some cases, no change will be necessary to supply chain infrastructure.

  • Market pull could enable radical improvements to plant design and delivery, driving high-volume manufacturing of these production facilities.

SustainableAviationFuelsForIceland – Lucid Insights_LucidCatalyst_07-07-2021
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